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02/15/2009 - Charlottesville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sylven Landesberg scored 23 points -- six in overtime -- to power the Virginia Cavaliers to an unlikely 85-81 victory over the 12th-ranked Clemson Tigers.
Sammy Zeglinski made all six of his shots from the field, including 3-for-3 from three-point range, to finish with 15 points, while Mike Scott chipped in 18 points for Virginia (8-13, 2-8 ACC), which snapped an eight-game slide and won its first conference game since its ACC opener against Georgia Tech back on December 28.
Clemson (20-4, 6-4) had won four of its previous five games coming in but watched the Cavs shoot 53.1 percent from the floor in taking the loss. Terrence Oglesby made five three-pointers for a team-high 17 points, though the sharp-shooter missed a potential tying three in the waning seconds of OT.
Trevor Booker logged 16 points and seven rebounds, while K.C. Rivers donated 15 points in the setback.
In the extra session, Virginia answered Oglesby's fifth trey of the game with six straight points for an 80-77 lead.
After exchanging baskets, Booker missed a fadeaway jumper from the baseline and the Tigers were called for defensive goaltending on the next possession.
David Potter's two free throws cut Clemson's deficit to three, 84-81, with 56.8 seconds left, and Jamil Tucker missed a three at the other end to give the visitors a shot at tying the game.
Oglesby tried to take his defender off the dribble on the right wing, but Zeglinski stayed in front and altered the shot, which fell short. Tucker was fouled grabbing the rebound with six seconds left and hit 1-of-2 from the stripe to finish off Virginia's most impressive win of the season.
A 13-0 run in a three-minute span early in the first half had Virginia ahead 16-5 after Jeff Jones' four-point play.
The Cavs continued to lead throughout the stanza and held a 33-25 lead before the game took an immediate turn after the intermission.
The Tigers scored the opening 14 points after the break in quick fashion. Demontez Stitt's mid-range jumper 3 1/2 minutes in had Virginia on the ropes and trailing 39-33. But the hosts hung tough and Scott's dunk finished off a 9-2 run, helping the Cavs retake the lead, 46-42, with 12 minutes left.
The lead changed hands several times over the next 10 minutes, and Scott's three-point play with 3:21 remaining put the Cavaliers ahead, 70-69.
Landesberg's bucket on the next possession made it a three-point game, though Booker and Rivers hit back-to-back field goals, the latter with 1:20 to play for a 73-72 advantage for Clemson.
Following a Tucker miss, Rivers was fouled and made 1-of-2 at the line with 29.4 seconds left. Landesberg was able to make his way into the lane for an easy two and tie the game with 13.4 ticks remaining.
Rather than take a timeout, Stitt attempted to end the game with an off- balanced runner. His attempt fell off the mark and Rivers' follow-up rattled off the rim as the game went to an extra five minutes.
Game Notes
Sean Singletary, a four-year starting point guard for Virginia and currently in his first year in the NBA with the Charlotte Bobcats, had his No. 44 retired at halftime...Virginia owns a 65-49 series advantage over Clemson... Jones and Tucker ended with 12 and 11 points for Virginia, which made 7-of-15 from three-point land...Stitt had 12 points for Clemson...The Tigers' Raymond Sykes led all players with 11 rebounds...Zeglinski also had six assists in the win.
<< Illinois fends off Indiana
Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis each scored 16
points, as 22nd-ranked Illinois defeated Indiana, 65-52, in Big Ten Conference
action at Assembly Hall.
Davis also added a game-high 10 rebounds, while Tisdale h
<< Zheng, Kanepi head list of early winners in Dubai
Dubai, United Arab Emirates (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - China's Zheng Jie and Kaia
Kanepi of Estonia both won their first round matches Sunday at the $2 million
Dubai Tennis Championships.
The 13th-seeded Zheng throttled Russian Anastasia Ro
<< Hamburg downs Arminia to take over third place
Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hamburg moved into third place in the
Bundesliga table on Sunday with a 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld at
HSH Nordbank Arena.
Piotr Trochowski put the home side ahead in the 32nd min
<< Bad weather delays Sunday at Pebble Beach
Pebble Beach, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heavy wind gusts and a persistent rain
have pushed back the start of Sunday's final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach
National Pro-Am.
The wind was so bad that it knocked a tree over near the t
Goodes gets first professional win at Allianz >>
Boca Raton, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - At the age of 52, Mike Goodes finally
collected his first professional victory on Sunday at the Allianz
Championship.
Goodes fired a six-under 66 in the final round to come from behind an
Busch leads Daytona 500 after 50 laps >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch has led 48 of the first 50
laps in the Daytona 500. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was second, followed by Tony
Stewart, Carl Edwards and Jeff Gordon.
While pole winner Martin Truex, Jr. led the
Inter holds off Milan to take commanding lead >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan took another big step towards
defending its league title on Sunday as Adriano and Dejan Stankovic scored
first-half goals in a 2-1 Inter victory over AC Milan.
Adriano grabbed the opener
Raul makes Real Madrid history in win over Sporting Gijon >>
Gijon, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spanish striker Raul has became the highest
scorer in Real Madrid history after scoring two goals in a 4-0 win at
Sporting Gijon on Sunday afternoon.
The 31-year-old broke Argentine legend Alfre
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.
That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.
Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.
After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.
The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).
To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.
NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago BearS 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston TexaNS 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle SeahawkS 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Odds as of: 2/2/09
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
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