Levet maintains Spanish Open lead

Golf Betting Lines

05/02/2009 - Girona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - France's Thomas Levet only managed a one- under 71 on Saturday, but held on to his two-shot cushion after the third round of the Spanish Open.

Levet finished 54 holes at 14-under 202 at the Stadium Course at PGA Golf Catalunya.

Stuart Davis fired a five-under 67 on Saturday and moved into second place at minus-12. Defending champion Peter Lawrie shot a 71 and is alone in third at 11-under 205.

Stephen Dodd (69) and Fabrizio Zanotti (66) share fourth at minus-nine, which is one shot better than Thomas Bjorn, who posted a one-under 71 in Saturday's third round.

They are all chasing a four-time European Tour winner, who played sound golf on Saturday.

Levet started solidly with four consecutive pars on Saturday, but his tee ball came up short at the par-three fifth. He chipped to 15 feet, but missed his par putt. Levet still held on to first thanks to a birdie and a bogey from Soren Hansen, but Levet would build up his lead after the miscue at the fifth.

After a birdie at the par-four sixth, Levet chipped to four feet for his third shot at the par-five seventh. The back-to-back birdies gave Levet a three-shot edge, but that nearly evaporated on the very next hole.

Hansen made birdie at the par-three eighth and Levet three-putted from 30 feet for a bogey. The two-shot swing left Levet with a slim one-shot advantage over Hansen, but that changed one hole later when Hansen triple-bogeyed the ninth after a horrible drive.

With Hansen out of the picture, Levet owned a three-shot lead and his closest competitors were Lawrie and a charging Davis. Levet had some decent looks at birdie at the 11th and 12th, but came up short each time. His lead was trimmed to two, but a nine-foot birdie putt at the 13th allowed him to reclaim his three-stroke margin.

The field made birdies on the back nine and Levet followed. He two-putted for a birdie at the par-five 15th, his third birdie in as many days on that hole, but a bogey at 16 left him two clear.

Levet parred 17 and had a makeable birdie putt on the last green. His putt narrowly missed the hole, but Levet will take his fourth 54-hole lead on the European Tour.

Levet's record is not great with the third-round lead. His only victory in the prior three instances came at the 1998 Cannes Open. Levet finished second in the other two, both in 2004.

Hansen never recovered from the triple-bogey at nine. He finished with a four- over 76 and is tied for seventh with Paul Broadhurst (70), Niclas Fasth (65), Jose Manuel Lara (71), Francesco Molinari (70), Charl Schwartzel (69) and Marcel Siem (72). That group finished three rounds at seven-under 209.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.