Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
05/01/2009 - Girona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - France's Thomas Levet shot a five-under 67 to take the second-round lead Friday at the Spanish Open.
Levet, who trailed overnight-leader Soren Hansen by a shot entering the round, collected six birdies against just one bogey to move two strokes in front of the Dane at 13-under-par 131.
Hansen followed his course-record 63 in the first round with a two-under 70 on Friday to slip into second place at 11-under 133. He double-bogeyed his last hole to fall out of a tie for the lead.
Defending champion Peter Lawrie of Ireland remained firmly in the mix with a six-under 66 that moved him into third place at 10-under 134.
Alejandro Canizares (69) and Chris Wood (70) are tied for fourth place at eight-under 136, while Thomas Bjorn (67) and Paul McGinley (67) lead a five- way tie at 137.
Levet was the first player to tee off at No. 1 on Friday. He began his charge with three birdies during a five-hole stretch ending at the seventh, but he bogeyed the ninth to give one of those shots back.
Battling Hansen for the lead for most of the day, Levet made three more birdies on the back nine -- at the 13th, 15th and 16th -- to take the clubhouse lead.
He almost holed his tee shot at the par-three 16th.
"I didn't hit the ball as well as yesterday, obviously. Yesterday was a very good day. But I hit some really, really nice shots," said Levet, who had a 64 on Thursday.
The four-time European Tour winner was especially pleased with one aspect of his game.
"I'm very pleased with my short game. And for me that's the most important part," said Levet. "When my short game is on, I'm always dangerous. My long game doesn't vary very much from day-to-day ... and is never going to be a huge difference."
Hansen, after starting his round on No. 10, struck a five-wood to 12 feet at the 12th to make an eagle. He birdied the 15th, then strung together seven straight pars before making his only bogey of the round at No. 5.
He birdied the sixth and seventh and reached the ninth hole (his last) tied with Levet at 13-under. But he made a double-bogey there to drop two strokes off the pace at PGA Golf Catalunya.
Like Levet, Hansen was eager to compare Friday's round to Thursday's.
"I played all right, but not the same sort of golf as yesterday," said the two-time European Tour winner. "I got it sort of going without hitting great shots, but then it crept back on me and I finished -- as they say -- in an ambulance."
The cut line fell at even-par 144 with 71 players moving on to the weekend.
European Ryder Cup captain Colin Montgomerie missed the cut badly after posting a nine-over 81 in the second round. Montgomerie tied for the fourth- worst score in a field of 156 players, finishing at nine-over 153.
<< Milan still believes in title chances
Catania, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When AC Milan travels to Catania on Sunday
they will be doing so with the belief that they can still catch leaders Inter
Milan at the top of the Serie A table.
It appeared that the race for the Scudetto
<< Celtic begins final push
Aberdeen, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Scottish Premier League season
enters its final stretch this weekend as Celtic travels to Pittodrie Stadium
on Saturday to meet Aberdeen with a one-point lead on second-placed Rangers.
Celtic
<< Real ready to reel in Barca in El Clasico
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid is unbeaten in 17 straight, a run
that includes 16 wins, and finally has a chance to reel in once runaway leader
Barcelona on Saturday in the El Clasico.
Real last lost in La Liga in December t
<< City hopes to continue surge to seventh
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester City will be aiming to put
together its first three-game win streak of the season when they host
Blackburn at Eastlands on Saturday.
A win over Rovers would not only accomplish
Hawks to be without Horford and Williams for Game 6 >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta Hawks forwards Al Horford and Marvin
Williams are expected to miss Game 6 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinal
series against the Miami Heat.
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Ho
The Kentucky Derby - A Rainy Proposition >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 20-horse field is set for the 135th
running of the Kentucky Derby, but the race will lose a ton of luster when
Mother Nature rears her ugly head on Saturday afternoon.
The track is already muddy from T
Nadal, Federer, Djokovic reach semis in Rome >>
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-ranked superstar Rafael Nadal, former
world No. 1 Roger Federer and reigning Rome champion Novak Djokovic
were quarterfinal winners Friday at the $3.645 million Italian Masters tennis
event.
Lyon needs a 'miracle' to win Ligue 1 >>
Valenciennes, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lyon midfielder Mathieu Bodmer admitted
this week the seven-time defending Ligue 1 champions need a "miracle" to repeat
as champions.
Lyon has slipped six points behind first-place Marseille and Bordea
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
Visit MySportsbook.com for free sportsbook odds RSS feeds go to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting